Friday, September 8, 2017

Update on Irma Forecast for SC: 8'17



Since then the models have shown it shifting so that it will move inland, with the major coastal impact to South Carolina occurring near the Georgia South Carolina border. Accordingly, our South Carolina Governor Henry McMaster has issued a mandatory evacuation for barrier islands of Beaufort County, Colleton County, and Jasper County. 

The rest of the coastline looks relatively safe. We are now planning on riding the hurricane out at home, but are still watching the models and path of the storm, and have everything ready to go in case we have to leave suddenly. 

Just because we won't take a direct hit, doesn't mean that we are out of the woods we won't see some damage. As of this morning, winds for this area are expected to get up to 40MPH with rainfall between 2" to 4". Those winds are about what we had last year with Matthew. We could have done just fine without boarding up last year. But remember, the current estimates for this area are being made based on the models which currently project the storm's path to take Irma inland through Columbia. If the high off our coast shifts east, the storm could move a lot closer to us, and get a lot stronger. We will probably have to wait until Irma makes landfall in Florida to really know if the current projected storm path holds true, or if it changes to our disadvantage.

Storm surge is a different matter. Pretty sure there is going to be significant tidal damage to all the ocean facing properties and barrier islands, I don't think the tidal surge will reach our units, but I wouldn't be surprised if it reaches the properties at the end of our street.

Since Irma will drop a lot of rainfall inland. We will also see a lot of delayed flooding along the midlands and low country river communities (just like we did last year). The Waccamaw is already at flood stage (from last months rains)so getting around on the country roads and even on portions of Hywy 17 will definitely be a challenge for awhile.

I also suspect that we might not be able to get in or out of the plantation not only due to flooded streets but because of broken trees limbs. It took the POA almost a full year to get the vegetative debris from Matthew cleaned up, now we might have to start all over. As far as structural damage to our places from falling trees, I don't think we need to worry about tree damage in the front of our units since the HOA removed the trees in our front yards. If a tree snaps in back. and falls on our unit, I don't think have the windows boarded will help much, so we will just hope that doesn't happen.

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